Institute of Sociology NASU

The problem of (non)return of Ukrainian war migrants: A theoretical framework for analysis

stmm. 2026 (1): 44-65

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2026.01.044

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2026-1/5.pdf

KATERYNA KRIZHIK, Postgraduate Student, Department of Social Psychology, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

k.krizhik@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1961-2202

The article develops an analytical framework for explaining the (non)return of Ukrainian war migrants in relation to their life plans after 2022. It aims to systematise and reconcile approaches at different levels of analysis, allowing decisions on returning or remaining abroad to be interpreted as socially embedded and dynamic processes. At the macro level, the paper considers neoclassical economic models, the dual labour market theory, and world-systems approaches that reveal how structural imbalances, labour demand, legal regimes, and global inequalities shape the space of opportunities for migration trajectories. Particular attention is paid to the institutional dimension, which directly influences Ukrainians’ strategies of legalisation, integration, or potential return. At the meso level, the article analyses social capital, migration network, and cumulative causation theories: networks lower the costs and risks of mobility, facilitate access to housing and employment in host countries, and simultaneously generate “return capital” through sustained ties with Ukraine. The balance between transnational and homeland ties determines whether the intention to stay abroad strengthens or the conditions for reintegration emerge. At the micro level, the study integrates rational choice and behavioural approaches, including bounded rationality, “push–pull” theory, life course theory, and the new economics of labour migration. It shows that initial departures under coercion and information scarcity align partly with bounded rationality, while subsequent (non)return decisions increasingly rely on comparative assessments of economic, legal, and social prospects, as well as safety and family circumstances. The article critically engages with the aspirations–capabilities framework, emphasising methodological ambiguities in measuring aspirations, the gap between declared intentions and actual behaviour, and the contextual variability of what constitutes a “capability” to return. It proposes an integrated approach combining rational choice logic (with bounded rationality), institutional theory, and social capital theory with the selective application of the aspirations–capabilities model. The resulting framework provides a coherent theoretical instrument for further research, enabling (non)return to be viewed as a socially constructed, multilevel, and temporally variable strategy that emerges at the intersection of institutional regimes, network configurations, and individual aspirations.

Keywords: war migration; life plans; (non)return; institutional theory; social capital; rational choice theory; aspirations and capabilities

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Received 22.10.2025

Accepted for publication after review 12.12.2025