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Faith in victory as an indicator of national resilience

stmm. 2026 (1): 171–184

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2026.01.171

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2026-1/12.pdf

YAROSLAV BURDIN, PhD Student in Sociology at the Department of Methodology and Methods of Sociological Research, Faculty of Sociology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (4d, Hlushkova Ave., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine)

burdin_yaroslav@knu.ua

https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4284-1565

SVITLANA SALNIKOVA, PhD in Sociology, Associate Professor at the Department of Methodology and Methods of Sociological Research, Faculty of Sociology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (4d, Hlushkova Ave., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine); Associate Professor at the Department of Sociology, Ukrainian Catholic University (Sventsitsky St., 17, Lviv, 79011)

sv.salnikova@knu.ua, s.salnikova@ucu.edu.ua

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6368-9480

SCOPUS ID: 56366614900

MYKOLA SYDOROV, PhD in Mathematics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Methodology and Methods of Sociological Research, Faculty of Sociology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (4d, Hlushkova Ave., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine)

myksyd@knu.ua

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5333-8393

SCOPUS ID: 58662565000

SERHII DEMBITSKYI, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Deputy Director of the Institute of Sociology, NAS of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

sociotest.solutions@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7958-3557

SCOPUS ID: 57189518563

The aim of the article is (1) the theoretical substantiation of an approach to measuring national resilience through the prism of faith in victory and (2) the empirical analysis of social and psychological predictors of this phenomenon. Considering resilience as a multilevel concept conceptualized at the individual, community, and national levels, the authors emphasize the growing importance of macro-processes of resilience and the significance of its psychosocial components as mechanisms for maintaining collective functionality under conditions of war. Based on the dataset of the sociological monitoring “Ukrainian Society” (2023), various regression model variations were constructed, in which faith in victory is the dependent variable, while the set of predictors is grouped into blocks: war experience, civic identity, institutional/personal trust, social optimism and information environment, civic participation, values; additionally, social status, education, and type of settlement were introduced into the model.

It was found that psychological resources (cognitive-motivational expectation) and identification resources (collective belonging) make the greatest contribution to sustaining faith in victory; they are complemented by values and civic participation; experience has unstable effects, so the decisive factors turn out to be the interpretive frameworks (optimism, values, identity) through which people make sense of this experience. Thus, regression analysis confirms that faith in victory is a valid indicator of national resilience during wartime, determined primarily by social optimism, civic identity, the value priority of statehood, institutional trust, and civic participation. Structural characteristics (education, type of settlement) and wartime experience (volunteering, losses) play a secondary or mediated role, yielding to psychological and normative resources.

Keywords: resilience; faith in Ukraine’s victory; war experience; institutional trust; civic engagement; social optimism; regression analysis

References:

  1. Alexseev, M.A. & Dembitskyi, S. (2024). Victory-in-freedom: Ukraine's democratic resilience in the face of war. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 2, 40-55. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.040

  2. Balakireva, O.M. & Dmytruk, D.A. (2022). War in Ukraine: Population perception and its impact on the quality of life. Ukr. Socium, 1(80), 116-122. https://doi.org/10.15407/socium2022.01.116

  3. Bezrukova, O., Vilkova, O., & Petrenko-Lysak, A. (2025). Social perception of war: a study of Ukrainian society under Russia's full-scale invasion. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 38(1), 70-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2025.2467217

  4. Bonanno, G.A. (2004). Loss, trauma, and human resilience: Have we underestimated the human capacity to thrive after extremely aversive events? American Psychologist, 59(1), 20-28. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.59.1.20

  5. Carver, C.S., Scheier, M.F., & Segerstrom, S.C. (2010). Optimism. Clinical Psychology Review, 30(7), 879-889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2010.01.006

  6. Dagdeviren, H., Capucha, L., Calado, A., Donoghue, M., & Estêvão, P. (2020). Structural Foundations of Social Resilience. Social Policy and Society, 19(4), 539-552. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474746420000032

  7. Hrushetskyi, A. (2025). Are Ukrainians Moving Towards Unity and How do Ukrainians See the Future of Ukraine. Kyiv: KIIS. Retreived from: https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1565&page=1

  8. Garmezy, N. (1971). Vulnerability research and the issue of primary prevention. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry, 41(1), 101-116. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-0025.1971.tb01111.x

  9. Goodwin, R., Hamama-Raz, Y., Leshem, E., & Ben-Ezra, M. (2023). National resilience in Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 85, 103487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103487

  10. Kimhi, S., Kaim, A., Bankauskaite, D., Baran, M., Baran, T., Eshel, Y., Dumbadze, S., Gabashvili, M., Kaniasty, K., Koubová, A., Marciano, H., Matkeviciene, R., Teperik, D., & Adini, B. (2023). A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Resilience and coping within and beyond Ukraine. Applied psychology. Health and well-being, 16(3), 1005-1023. https://doi.org/10.1111/aphw.12466

  11. Koubová, A. & Kimhi, S. (2024). Prediction of individual, community and societal resilience in the Czech Republic compared to Slovakia during the war in Ukraine. BMC Public Health, 24, 583. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18075-y

  12. Kutsenko, O. (2025). Resilience under fire: navigating societal challenges, agency, and innovation in times of war. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 38(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2025.2465177

  13. Luthar, S.S., Cicchetti, D., & Becker, B. (2000). The Construct of Resilience: A Critical Evaluation. Child Development, 71(3), 543-562. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8624.00164

  14. Marukhovskyi, O., Marukhovska-Kartunova, O., Kolybabiuk, S., Pavlova, L., & Karchevska, O. (2024). The Role of Online Media in Shaping Public Opinion about the Prospects for Peace and Military Conflict. Pakistan Journal of Criminology, 16(2), 431-446. https://doi.org/10.62271/pjc.16.1.431.446

  15. Masten, A.S. (2001). Ordinary magic. Resilience processes in development. Am. Psychol., 56(3), 227-238. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.56.3.227

  16. Mirchuk, I. & Pavlenko, D. (2022). Psychoemotional State and Social Activity of Student Youth in the Conditions of War: A Sociological Analysis. Visnyk of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Series Sociological studies of contemporary society: methodology, theory, methods, 49, 47-54. https://doi.org/10.26565/2227-6521-2022-49-05

  17. Norris, F.H., Stevens, S.P., Pfefferbaum, B., Wyche, K.F., & Pfefferbaum, R.L. (2008). Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. American Journal of Community Psychology, 41(1-2), 127-150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6

  18. Razumkov Centre. (2025). "Red Lines for Ukraine": Public Opinion and National Convictions (April-May 2025). Kyiv Security Forum. (May 13, 2025). Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/images/2025/05/08/prezent.pdf; , https://razumkov.org.ua/en/component/k2/red-lines-for-ukraine-public-opinion-and-national-convictions-april-may-2025

  19. Reznikova, O. & Korniievskyi, O. (2024). Resilience of the Ukrainian society in wartime: components and influencing factors. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2024-0105

  20. Slyusarevskyy, M. (2024). Peculiarities of content and trends in the dynamics of public perceptions of war and victory. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Psychology, 20(2), 5-13. https://doi.org/10.17721/BPSY.2024.2(20).1

  21. Ungar, M. (2012). The social ecology of resilience. A handbook of theory and practice. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0586-3

  22. Werner, E.E. & Smith, R.S. (1982). Vulnerable but invincible: A longitudinal study of resilient children and youth. McGraw-Hill.

  23. Zlobina, O. (2024). Dynamics of Social and Psychological Resilience of the Population of Ukraine during the War. Demography and Social Economy, 58(4), 148-164. https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2024.04.148

Received 15.12.2025

Accepted for publication after review 15.01.2026

Faith in victory as an indicator of national resilience

stmm. 2026 (1): 171–184

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2026.01.171

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2026-1/12.pdf

YAROSLAV BURDIN, PhD Student in Sociology at the Department of Methodology and Methods of Sociological Research, Faculty of Sociology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (4d, Hlushkova Ave., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine)

burdin_yaroslav@knu.ua

https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4284-1565

SVITLANA SALNIKOVA, PhD in Sociology, Associate Professor at the Department of Methodology and Methods of Sociological Research, Faculty of Sociology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (4d, Hlushkova Ave., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine); Associate Professor at the Department of Sociology, Ukrainian Catholic University (Sventsitsky St., 17, Lviv, 79011)

sv.salnikova@knu.ua, s.salnikova@ucu.edu.ua

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6368-9480

SCOPUS ID: 56366614900

MYKOLA SYDOROV, PhD in Mathematics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Methodology and Methods of Sociological Research, Faculty of Sociology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (4d, Hlushkova Ave., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine)

myksyd@knu.ua

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5333-8393

SCOPUS ID: 58662565000

SERHII DEMBITSKYI, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Deputy Director of the Institute of Sociology, NAS of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

sociotest.solutions@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7958-3557

SCOPUS ID: 57189518563

The aim of the article is (1) the theoretical substantiation of an approach to measuring national resilience through the prism of faith in victory and (2) the empirical analysis of social and psychological predictors of this phenomenon. Considering resilience as a multilevel concept conceptualized at the individual, community, and national levels, the authors emphasize the growing importance of macro-processes of resilience and the significance of its psychosocial components as mechanisms for maintaining collective functionality under conditions of war. Based on the dataset of the sociological monitoring “Ukrainian Society” (2023), various regression model variations were constructed, in which faith in victory is the dependent variable, while the set of predictors is grouped into blocks: war experience, civic identity, institutional/personal trust, social optimism and information environment, civic participation, values; additionally, social status, education, and type of settlement were introduced into the model.

It was found that psychological resources (cognitive-motivational expectation) and identification resources (collective belonging) make the greatest contribution to sustaining faith in victory; they are complemented by values and civic participation; experience has unstable effects, so the decisive factors turn out to be the interpretive frameworks (optimism, values, identity) through which people make sense of this experience. Thus, regression analysis confirms that faith in victory is a valid indicator of national resilience during wartime, determined primarily by social optimism, civic identity, the value priority of statehood, institutional trust, and civic participation. Structural characteristics (education, type of settlement) and wartime experience (volunteering, losses) play a secondary or mediated role, yielding to psychological and normative resources.

Keywords: resilience; faith in Ukraine’s victory; war experience; institutional trust; civic engagement; social optimism; regression analysis

References:

  1. Alexseev, M.A. & Dembitskyi, S. (2024). Victory-in-freedom: Ukraine's democratic resilience in the face of war. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 2, 40-55. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.040

  2. Balakireva, O.M. & Dmytruk, D.A. (2022). War in Ukraine: Population perception and its impact on the quality of life. Ukr. Socium, 1(80), 116-122. https://doi.org/10.15407/socium2022.01.116

  3. Bezrukova, O., Vilkova, O., & Petrenko-Lysak, A. (2025). Social perception of war: a study of Ukrainian society under Russia's full-scale invasion. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 38(1), 70-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2025.2467217

  4. Bonanno, G.A. (2004). Loss, trauma, and human resilience: Have we underestimated the human capacity to thrive after extremely aversive events? American Psychologist, 59(1), 20-28. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.59.1.20

  5. Carver, C.S., Scheier, M.F., & Segerstrom, S.C. (2010). Optimism. Clinical Psychology Review, 30(7), 879-889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2010.01.006

  6. Dagdeviren, H., Capucha, L., Calado, A., Donoghue, M., & Estêvão, P. (2020). Structural Foundations of Social Resilience. Social Policy and Society, 19(4), 539-552. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474746420000032

  7. Hrushetskyi, A. (2025). Are Ukrainians Moving Towards Unity and How do Ukrainians See the Future of Ukraine. Kyiv: KIIS. Retreived from: https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1565&page=1

  8. Garmezy, N. (1971). Vulnerability research and the issue of primary prevention. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry, 41(1), 101-116. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-0025.1971.tb01111.x

  9. Goodwin, R., Hamama-Raz, Y., Leshem, E., & Ben-Ezra, M. (2023). National resilience in Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 85, 103487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103487

  10. Kimhi, S., Kaim, A., Bankauskaite, D., Baran, M., Baran, T., Eshel, Y., Dumbadze, S., Gabashvili, M., Kaniasty, K., Koubová, A., Marciano, H., Matkeviciene, R., Teperik, D., & Adini, B. (2023). A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Resilience and coping within and beyond Ukraine. Applied psychology. Health and well-being, 16(3), 1005-1023. https://doi.org/10.1111/aphw.12466

  11. Koubová, A. & Kimhi, S. (2024). Prediction of individual, community and societal resilience in the Czech Republic compared to Slovakia during the war in Ukraine. BMC Public Health, 24, 583. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18075-y

  12. Kutsenko, O. (2025). Resilience under fire: navigating societal challenges, agency, and innovation in times of war. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 38(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2025.2465177

  13. Luthar, S.S., Cicchetti, D., & Becker, B. (2000). The Construct of Resilience: A Critical Evaluation. Child Development, 71(3), 543-562. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8624.00164

  14. Marukhovskyi, O., Marukhovska-Kartunova, O., Kolybabiuk, S., Pavlova, L., & Karchevska, O. (2024). The Role of Online Media in Shaping Public Opinion about the Prospects for Peace and Military Conflict. Pakistan Journal of Criminology, 16(2), 431-446. https://doi.org/10.62271/pjc.16.1.431.446

  15. Masten, A.S. (2001). Ordinary magic. Resilience processes in development. Am. Psychol., 56(3), 227-238. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.56.3.227

  16. Mirchuk, I. & Pavlenko, D. (2022). Psychoemotional State and Social Activity of Student Youth in the Conditions of War: A Sociological Analysis. Visnyk of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Series Sociological studies of contemporary society: methodology, theory, methods, 49, 47-54. https://doi.org/10.26565/2227-6521-2022-49-05

  17. Norris, F.H., Stevens, S.P., Pfefferbaum, B., Wyche, K.F., & Pfefferbaum, R.L. (2008). Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. American Journal of Community Psychology, 41(1-2), 127-150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6

  18. Razumkov Centre. (2025). "Red Lines for Ukraine": Public Opinion and National Convictions (April-May 2025). Kyiv Security Forum. (May 13, 2025). Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/images/2025/05/08/prezent.pdf; , https://razumkov.org.ua/en/component/k2/red-lines-for-ukraine-public-opinion-and-national-convictions-april-may-2025

  19. Reznikova, O. & Korniievskyi, O. (2024). Resilience of the Ukrainian society in wartime: components and influencing factors. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2024-0105

  20. Slyusarevskyy, M. (2024). Peculiarities of content and trends in the dynamics of public perceptions of war and victory. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Psychology, 20(2), 5-13. https://doi.org/10.17721/BPSY.2024.2(20).1

  21. Ungar, M. (2012). The social ecology of resilience. A handbook of theory and practice. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0586-3

  22. Werner, E.E. & Smith, R.S. (1982). Vulnerable but invincible: A longitudinal study of resilient children and youth. McGraw-Hill.

  23. Zlobina, O. (2024). Dynamics of Social and Psychological Resilience of the Population of Ukraine during the War. Demography and Social Economy, 58(4), 148-164. https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2024.04.148

Received 15.12.2025

Accepted for publication after review 15.01.2026

LATEST PRINTED ISSUE

LATEST FREELY ACCESSIBLE MATERIALS

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