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Dynamics of Ukrainian support for authoritarianism before and after the large-scale Russian invasion: the impact of traumatic wartime events

stmm. 2026 (1): 5–24

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2026.01.005

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2026-1/3.pdf

OLEKSANDR REZNIK, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Principal Research Fellow at the Department of Social Expertise, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

oleksanderreznik@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5201-8489

https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57202520976

Following the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukrainians were confronted with forced restrictions on political life, including its pluralistic media and competitive elections. The need for strong leadership led to the “rally around the flag” effect. The empirical analysis is based on a comparison of the opinions of the Ukrainian population, and in particular those who have experienced traumatic events during wartime, regarding a specific political system and principles of state governance. Throughout the four years of the ongoing war, Ukrainians have demonstrated a mixed attitude towards a democratic system, simultaneously approving of authoritarian principles of governance. In such circumstances, where people are striving for both democracy and strong leadership that is not restricted by parliament or procedures, a favourable value-normative background is created, not so much for the establishment of authoritarianism, but rather for the reproduction of support for yet another variety of populist and personalist regime. At the same time, over the years of this war, the proportion of Ukrainians who perceive authoritarian ideas negatively has been gradually increasing. Assumptions about the impact of war trauma on the growth of support for authoritarianism have not been realised. Among all groups that have experienced trauma, the proportion of support for authoritarianism does not differ significantly from that of the rest of the population. Only among people who were wounded as a result of combat operations is there a slightly higher proportion of support for authoritarianism. Examining the impact of the traumatic consequences of war on political consciousness during the war itself does not allow us to draw definitive conclusions. Only when the mobilization “anesthesia” wears off and the social “pain” of traumatized people intensifies will it be possible to obtain objective answers regarding their political aspirations.

Keywords: war trauma, support for authoritarianism, authoritarian attitudes, Ukraine

Referenes:

  1. Alexseev, M.A., Dembitskyi, S. (2024). Geosocietal Support for Democracy: Survey Evidence from Ukraine. Perspectives on Politics, 22(4), 1077-1099. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592724000422

  2. Bakke, K.M., Dahl, M., Rickard, K. (2025). Conflict exposure and democratic values: Evidence from wartime Ukraine. Journal of Peace Research, 62(5), 1376-1392. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347769

  3. Berinsky, A.J. (2009). In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226043463.001.0001

  4. Davis, D.W., Silver, B.D. (2004). Civil Liberties vs. Security: Public Opinion in the Context of the Terrorist Attacks on America. American Journal of Political Science, 48(1), 28-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00054.x

  5. ESS ERIC - European Social Survey European Research Infrastructure. (2025) ESS11 - integrated file, edition 4.0 [Data set]. Sikt - Norwegian Agency for Shared Services in Education and Research.

  6. ESS. (2022). Ukrainian European Social Survey 2022. Retrieved from: https://europeansocialsurvey.org/about/resources/ukrainian-european-social-survey-2022

  7. Fiedler, C. (2023). What Do We Know about How Armed Conflict Affects Social Cohesion? A Review of the Empirical Literature. International Studies Review, 25(3), viad030. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viad030

  8. Frederiksen, K., Laustsen, L. (2025). Interstate Conflict Increases the Appeal of Undemocratic Candidates. British Journal of Political Science, 55, e138. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123425101014

  9. Grosjean, P. (2014). Conflict and Social and Political Preferences: Evidence from World War II and Civil Conflict in 35 European Countries. Comparative Economic Studies, 56(3), 424-451. https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2014.2

  10. Hall, J., Werner, K. (2022). Trauma and Trust: How War Exposure Shapes Social and Institutional Trust among Refugees. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 786838. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.786838

  11. Hetherington, M.J., Suhay, E. (2011). Authoritarianism, Threat, and Americans' Support for the War on Terror. American Journal of Political Science, 55(3), 546-560. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00514.x

  12. KIIS. (2022). Democracy, Rights and Freedoms of Citizens and Media Consumption in Conditions of War. Results of the KIIS Survey for Opora, 17.08. 2022. Retrieved from: https://oporaua.org/en/viyna/24256-pid-chas-povnomasshtabnoyi-viini-v-ukrayini-zris-popit-na-silnu-ruku-shvidki-ta-strukturovani-novini-i-reguliuvannia-mediaprostoru-opituvannia-24256

  13. KIIS. (2024). To what extent do Ukrainians consider Ukraine a demokratic country and the priority of a democratic system. Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Press Releases and Reports, 10.05.2024. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1406&page=1

  14. Lai, B., Reiter, D. (2005). Rally 'Round the Union Jack? Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the United Kingdom, 1948-2001. International Studies Quarterly, 49(2), 255-272. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-8833.2005.00344.x

  15. Liu, S.X. (2022). How war-related deprivation affects political participation: Evidence from education loss in Liberia. Journal of Peace Research, 59(3), 353-366. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211019460

  16. Rakhmanov, О. (2024). The perception of Ukrainians about political life in the post-war period and the prospects for the spread of populism. [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 2, 25-39. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.025

  17. Report on the research project "Political Culture of Ukrainian Society: Trends and Patterns of Development". (2005). [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

  18. Reznik, O. (2023). Features of Ukrainians' authoritarian orientations during the war. Website of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, August 3, 2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://dif.org.ua/article/osoblivosti-avtoritarnikh-orientatsiy-ukraintsiv-pid-chas-viyni

  19. Reznik, O. (2024). Populist orientations of Ukrainians during a full-scale war. [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 1, 80-92. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.01.080

  20. Reznik, O. (2025). Political consequences of the traumatic experience of Ukrainians in a large-scale war. [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 1, 43-60. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2025.01.043

  21. Semeniuk, T. (2024). War and authoritarianism: the request for a «strong hand» in Ukraine during the conditions of war. [In Ukrainian]. Agora. Social Sciences Journal, 2(1), 21-59. https://doi.org/10.25264/2786-9202/2.1-21-59

  22. Shcherbak, M. (2006). Social-Class Characteristics of the Political Culture of Ukraine: Applying the Sociological Test "Types of Political Culture". [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 3, 153-160.

  23. The analytical report "Democracy, Rights and Freedoms of Citizens and Media Consumption in Conditions of War". (2022). [Published in July 2022]. Retrieved from: https://oporaua.org/en/viyna/24256-pid-chas-povnomasshtabnoyi-viini-v-ukrayini-zris-popit-na-silnu-ruku-shvidki-ta-strukturovani-novini-i-reguliuvannia-mediaprostoru-opituvannia-24256

  24. The Razumkov Centre. (2025). Results of a sociological survey conducted by the Razumkov Center's sociological service from September 12 to 17, 2025. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/anons/rezultaty-sotsiologichnogo-opytuvannia-shcho-provodylosia-sotsiologichnoiu-sluzhboiu-tsentru-razumkova-z-12-po-17-veresnia-2025-roku

Received 10.12.2025

Accepted for publication after review 15.01.2026

Dynamics of Ukrainian support for authoritarianism before and after the large-scale Russian invasion: the impact of traumatic wartime events

stmm. 2026 (1): 5–24

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2026.01.005

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2026-1/3.pdf

OLEKSANDR REZNIK, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Principal Research Fellow at the Department of Social Expertise, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

oleksanderreznik@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5201-8489

https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57202520976

Following the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukrainians were confronted with forced restrictions on political life, including its pluralistic media and competitive elections. The need for strong leadership led to the “rally around the flag” effect. The empirical analysis is based on a comparison of the opinions of the Ukrainian population, and in particular those who have experienced traumatic events during wartime, regarding a specific political system and principles of state governance. Throughout the four years of the ongoing war, Ukrainians have demonstrated a mixed attitude towards a democratic system, simultaneously approving of authoritarian principles of governance. In such circumstances, where people are striving for both democracy and strong leadership that is not restricted by parliament or procedures, a favourable value-normative background is created, not so much for the establishment of authoritarianism, but rather for the reproduction of support for yet another variety of populist and personalist regime. At the same time, over the years of this war, the proportion of Ukrainians who perceive authoritarian ideas negatively has been gradually increasing. Assumptions about the impact of war trauma on the growth of support for authoritarianism have not been realised. Among all groups that have experienced trauma, the proportion of support for authoritarianism does not differ significantly from that of the rest of the population. Only among people who were wounded as a result of combat operations is there a slightly higher proportion of support for authoritarianism. Examining the impact of the traumatic consequences of war on political consciousness during the war itself does not allow us to draw definitive conclusions. Only when the mobilization “anesthesia” wears off and the social “pain” of traumatized people intensifies will it be possible to obtain objective answers regarding their political aspirations.

Keywords: war trauma, support for authoritarianism, authoritarian attitudes, Ukraine

Referenes:

  1. Alexseev, M.A., Dembitskyi, S. (2024). Geosocietal Support for Democracy: Survey Evidence from Ukraine. Perspectives on Politics, 22(4), 1077-1099. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592724000422

  2. Bakke, K.M., Dahl, M., Rickard, K. (2025). Conflict exposure and democratic values: Evidence from wartime Ukraine. Journal of Peace Research, 62(5), 1376-1392. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347769

  3. Berinsky, A.J. (2009). In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226043463.001.0001

  4. Davis, D.W., Silver, B.D. (2004). Civil Liberties vs. Security: Public Opinion in the Context of the Terrorist Attacks on America. American Journal of Political Science, 48(1), 28-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00054.x

  5. ESS ERIC - European Social Survey European Research Infrastructure. (2025) ESS11 - integrated file, edition 4.0 [Data set]. Sikt - Norwegian Agency for Shared Services in Education and Research.

  6. ESS. (2022). Ukrainian European Social Survey 2022. Retrieved from: https://europeansocialsurvey.org/about/resources/ukrainian-european-social-survey-2022

  7. Fiedler, C. (2023). What Do We Know about How Armed Conflict Affects Social Cohesion? A Review of the Empirical Literature. International Studies Review, 25(3), viad030. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viad030

  8. Frederiksen, K., Laustsen, L. (2025). Interstate Conflict Increases the Appeal of Undemocratic Candidates. British Journal of Political Science, 55, e138. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123425101014

  9. Grosjean, P. (2014). Conflict and Social and Political Preferences: Evidence from World War II and Civil Conflict in 35 European Countries. Comparative Economic Studies, 56(3), 424-451. https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2014.2

  10. Hall, J., Werner, K. (2022). Trauma and Trust: How War Exposure Shapes Social and Institutional Trust among Refugees. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 786838. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.786838

  11. Hetherington, M.J., Suhay, E. (2011). Authoritarianism, Threat, and Americans' Support for the War on Terror. American Journal of Political Science, 55(3), 546-560. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00514.x

  12. KIIS. (2022). Democracy, Rights and Freedoms of Citizens and Media Consumption in Conditions of War. Results of the KIIS Survey for Opora, 17.08. 2022. Retrieved from: https://oporaua.org/en/viyna/24256-pid-chas-povnomasshtabnoyi-viini-v-ukrayini-zris-popit-na-silnu-ruku-shvidki-ta-strukturovani-novini-i-reguliuvannia-mediaprostoru-opituvannia-24256

  13. KIIS. (2024). To what extent do Ukrainians consider Ukraine a demokratic country and the priority of a democratic system. Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Press Releases and Reports, 10.05.2024. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1406&page=1

  14. Lai, B., Reiter, D. (2005). Rally 'Round the Union Jack? Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the United Kingdom, 1948-2001. International Studies Quarterly, 49(2), 255-272. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-8833.2005.00344.x

  15. Liu, S.X. (2022). How war-related deprivation affects political participation: Evidence from education loss in Liberia. Journal of Peace Research, 59(3), 353-366. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211019460

  16. Rakhmanov, О. (2024). The perception of Ukrainians about political life in the post-war period and the prospects for the spread of populism. [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 2, 25-39. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.025

  17. Report on the research project "Political Culture of Ukrainian Society: Trends and Patterns of Development". (2005). [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

  18. Reznik, O. (2023). Features of Ukrainians' authoritarian orientations during the war. Website of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, August 3, 2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://dif.org.ua/article/osoblivosti-avtoritarnikh-orientatsiy-ukraintsiv-pid-chas-viyni

  19. Reznik, O. (2024). Populist orientations of Ukrainians during a full-scale war. [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 1, 80-92. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.01.080

  20. Reznik, O. (2025). Political consequences of the traumatic experience of Ukrainians in a large-scale war. [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 1, 43-60. https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2025.01.043

  21. Semeniuk, T. (2024). War and authoritarianism: the request for a «strong hand» in Ukraine during the conditions of war. [In Ukrainian]. Agora. Social Sciences Journal, 2(1), 21-59. https://doi.org/10.25264/2786-9202/2.1-21-59

  22. Shcherbak, M. (2006). Social-Class Characteristics of the Political Culture of Ukraine: Applying the Sociological Test "Types of Political Culture". [In Ukrainian]. Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, 3, 153-160.

  23. The analytical report "Democracy, Rights and Freedoms of Citizens and Media Consumption in Conditions of War". (2022). [Published in July 2022]. Retrieved from: https://oporaua.org/en/viyna/24256-pid-chas-povnomasshtabnoyi-viini-v-ukrayini-zris-popit-na-silnu-ruku-shvidki-ta-strukturovani-novini-i-reguliuvannia-mediaprostoru-opituvannia-24256

  24. The Razumkov Centre. (2025). Results of a sociological survey conducted by the Razumkov Center's sociological service from September 12 to 17, 2025. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/anons/rezultaty-sotsiologichnogo-opytuvannia-shcho-provodylosia-sotsiologichnoiu-sluzhboiu-tsentru-razumkova-z-12-po-17-veresnia-2025-roku

Received 10.12.2025

Accepted for publication after review 15.01.2026

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